In Northwest Nigeria’s volatile security landscape, few debates are as contentious as whether to negotiate with armed groups or apply strict military justice. Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, a prominent voice in favor of engaging insurgents — argues that many bandits are products of neglect, poverty, and systemic failures.
But recent developments across Katsina show that such “peace deals” may be less about justice or rehabilitation, and more about giving criminal networks breathing room to regroup — often at the expense of vulnerable communities.
In Katsina State, local stakeholders and authorities brokered peace agreements in several LGAs such as Batsari, Safana, Dan-Musa, Dutsin-ma, Kurfi, Faskari, Kankara, Sabuwa, Musawa, Matazu, Bakori, Danja, Funtua, Dandume, Kankia, Kusada, Ingawa, Malumfashi and Jibia — aiming to halt attacks and stabilize rural communities. These deals typically involved halting military operations, granting temporary safe passage or reaching informal understandings with armed groups.
While the agreements promised reduced attacks, reopened markets, and safer travel routes, the practical outcomes have been different. Armed groups used the breathing space to regroup, reorganize and expand their operations into neighboring areas with weaker security presence. Rural communities in Kano State bordering Katsina State particularly Tsanyawa, Shanono and Ghari (Kunchi) have experienced incursions, kidnappings and raids in the weeks following the Katsina peace deals.
This pattern raises serious questions about the logic of negotiating with bandits rather than pursuing justice. If armed groups are allowed to operate without accountability, their actions can intensify, spilling into communities that were previously unaffected. The recent situation in Kano demonstrates that peace deals without rigorous enforcement or oversight may create more risk than relief.
Banditry in Northwest Nigeria cannot be explained solely by social neglect or governance failures. While marginalized communities exist on both sides of the conflict, the majority do not resort to violence. Armed groups operate opportunistically, exploiting gaps in enforcement and peace agreements to expand their influence and pursue criminal objectives, from territorial control to ransom operations.
The experience along the Katsina-Kano border provides a cautionary tale: well-intentioned negotiations, when not paired with sustained security and accountability, risk shifting violence rather than ending it. Sheikh Gumi’s advocacy for engagement show a broader debate about justice versus compromise but the recent weeks show that communities along state borders are paying the price when armed groups are given leniency.
Northwest Nigeria’s path to peace requires a balance between dialogue and firm accountability. Without it, temporary arrangements risk emboldening bandits, expanding their operations, and leaving vulnerable communities exposed to renewed cycles of violence.
𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁𝘀𝗔𝗽𝗽 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗹 𝗧𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗔𝘀 𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽!
