The playoffs route has reopened for the Super Eagles following CAF’s recent announcement.
The Super Eagles have been handed a boost in their World Cup qualifying bid after CAF confirmed the new requirements for finishing as one of the four best second-placed teams.
The playoff route was previously closed to Nigeria after it became mathematically impossible to finish as one of the four best second-placed teams. However, Eritrea pulled out of the competition, hence forcing CAF to rejig the criteria for fairness. This has handed Nigeria an added lifeline.
The new CAF Criteria
The new parameters for determining the best four second-placed teams according to a CAF circular are as follows:
There will be 9 second-placed teams, one from each group.
To compare them fairly, the results against the last-placed team in each group are not counted.
This means only matches against the top five teams in each group are used for comparison.
Exception: Group E has only 5 teams because Eritrea withdrew.
Therefore, for Group E, all results will count, as there is no sixth team to exclude.
After this adjustment, the best runners-up are ranked using the same tie-breaking criteria found in Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Regulations (e.g., points, goal difference, goals scored, etc).
The four best runners-up in #Africa’s 2026 World Cup
qualifying will be determined not by their overall points tally but by their results only against the third, fourth and fifth-placed sides in their respective groups, the Confederation of African Football has confirmed.
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— Olúwashínà Okeleji (@oluwashina) October 12, 2025
How does this help Nigeria?
Currently, on 14, the maximum amount of points the Super Eagles can collect in Group C is 17, with only one match left. With six other teams having crossed that mark, the playoff route was effectively closed for Nigeria.
The only path to qualification required Nigeria to beat the Benin Republic in the final game by a 1-0 scoreline or a margin of two should the Cheetahs score. And that only matters if South Africa fails to beat Zimbabwe. Tough.
With the new criteria for qualifying for the playoffs, however, the points have to be recalculated, and the Super Eagles have a fresh chance.
𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁𝘀𝗔𝗽𝗽 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗹 𝗧𝗼 𝗚𝗲𝘁 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝗔𝘀 𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽!
