Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, declined sharply by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025, according to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The figure represents a drop from the 1.684 million barrels per day recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, highlighting persistent challenges in the country’s oil and gas sector.+See more details
LeadNaija News reports that although the Commission did not explicitly state the reasons for the decline in its latest report released on Monday, January 19, 2026, experts attributed the fall largely to limited investment, declining production capacity, insecurity, and weak investor confidence.
On a month-on-month basis, the NUPRC said Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, fell marginally to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.599 million bpd recorded in November 2025.
The data further showed that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to the regulator, of the total 1.544 million bpd produced in December, 122,385 barrels per day were condensate, which OPEC does not count toward its quota.
This implies that Nigeria’s actual crude oil production recognised by OPEC stood at about 1.422 million barrels per day, falling short of the agreed output level.
FG Misses 2025 Budget Benchmark
The report also revealed that the Federal Government failed to meet its 2025 budget oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day during the period.
LeadNaija News reports that the 2025 budget was benchmarked on crude oil production of 2.06 million bpd, an oil price of $75 per barrel, and an exchange rate of approximately ₦1,500 to the dollar.
Providing further details, the NUPRC stated, “Lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate were 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd, respectively. The average crude oil production represents 95 per cent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd).
“Daily average production was 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,421,960 bopd) and condensate (122,385 bopd).”
Similarly, OPEC, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, confirmed that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, declined marginally on a month-on-month basis.
According to OPEC, Nigeria produced 1.422 million bpd in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November 2025, representing a decrease of 0.9 per cent.
The oil cartel noted that the figures were based on data obtained from direct communication, once again confirming that Nigeria failed to meet its 1.5 million bpd quota.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC said Nigeria’s crude oil output dropped to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.485 million bpd in the comparable period, underscoring a sustained decline in production.
Insecurity, Policy Gaps Blamed For Decline
Reacting to the development, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, blamed the decline on long-standing structural and governance issues.
Speaking in a recent interview with Vanguard, Iledare said, “The reasons are familiar: insecurity, a mature basin with no major new discoveries, and the failure to offer fresh hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain overwhelming, and policy uncertainty continues to weaken investor confidence.”
He also criticised the selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, stressing the need for clear leadership in the sector.
“The selective implementation of the PIA must stop. Nigeria urgently needs a clearly designated leader with institutional authority to drive the sector.
Too many proxy drivers will not work. I cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota,” he added.+Read full details
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