Leadnaija
That’s what we have to kick off Saturday’s March Madness action, as the Florida Gators take on the Auburn Tigers for the second time in the 2024-25 season. These teams matched up once in the regular season – they did not play in the SEC Tournament – with the Gators picking up a nine-point win on the road.
An All-SEC Final Four matchup?
Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida have survived some tough matchups with UConn and Texas Tech to reach the Final Four, while the Tigers worked through a Johni Broome injury to beat Michigan State in the Elite 8. Based on the latest odds, it appears that Broome will be good to go on Saturday night.
There has been some odds movement in this game, with the Gators moving from -142 to -155 on the moneyline. In addition to that, the total has dropped two points from 161.5 to 159.5.
Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to watch and my prediction for the Final Four.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Walter Clayton Jr. 22+ Points (+100)
If you want to get aggressive, taking Clayton to finish with 22 or more points is a solid value at even money.
He’s scored 22 or more points in five of his last six games dating back to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. While he scored just 19 points in the first meeting against Auburn, Clayton has shot the lights out in the NCAA Tournament, hitting 45.8 percent of his shots from the field and 45.2 percent of them from 3.
Tahaad Pettiford UNDER 3.5 Assists (-115)
Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has played well in the NCAA Tournament, but this assists prop is a little too high for my liking.
Pettiford is averaging 2.9 assists per game for the season, failing to pick up four or more dimes in five of his six games since the start of the SEC Tournament.
Earlier this week, I picked Florida to win this game, and I haven’t changed my thinking in the lead up to this contest:
With Broome banged up, I lean with the Gators to win this SEC rematch in San Antonio.
Florida has not been great in the NCAA Tournament, nearly getting upset by both Texas Tech and UConn, but when it has come down to it, Clayton has made winning plays (as did Thomas Haugh in the Elite 8) to clinch games for the Gators.
I believe that Florida has the edge at guard with Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard, and Auburn’s trump card (Broome) may not be 100 percent.
Winning on the road against the Tigers was huge for Florida earlier this season, and the Gators are one of the 10-best shooting teams from beyond the arc in the country.
Rather than worry about the points, I’ll back the Gators to win outright and advance to the final.
Pick: Florida Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
