Nigeria has emerged as the West African country most severely affected by the region’s deepening security crisis, accounting for 96.8% of conflict-related fatalities, according to a new report by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD).
The report highlighted a sharp escalation in insurgency, terrorism, and inter-communal violence across West Africa, particularly in January 2025.
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) pointed to an alarming rise in jihadist attacks, with militant groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and ISIS Sahel expanding their operational reach by exploiting weak governance and porous borders.
The report warned that security forces in Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin are struggling to contain the escalating violence.
The report detailed how insurgents in Mali and Burkina Faso launched large-scale attacks against military forces and civilians, causing mass casualties and displacement.
Burkina Faso’s northern and eastern regions have been particularly hard-hit, with jihadists overpowering state security efforts.
Meanwhile, Mali remains in turmoil, as Wagner-affiliated forces and government troops engage in counterinsurgency operations that had drawn accusations of human rights violations.
Benin, once considered relatively insulated from jihadist activity, is now experiencing a worrying spillover of violence from Burkina Faso.
The report noted that militant groups have intensified cross-border raids, exposing the country’s security vulnerabilities and underscoring the transnational nature of the crisis.
According to the report, Nigeria remains the focal point of the security crisis, with Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continuing their insurgency in the North-East.
The report stated, “Nigeria experienced the highest number of fatalities due to a combination of banditry and counterinsurgency operations.
“Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have further destabilised the country, particularly in the North West and North East, through violent attacks and the targeting of civilians for ransom.
“The rising frequency of these incidents has overwhelmed security forces, who are already stretched thin due to the persistent insurgent activity. The surge in organised criminal groups engaging in kidnapping and cattle rustling further complicates security responses and undermines local economies.”
The report stated that the North West and North Central regions of Nigeria are grappling with a surge in banditry and intercommunal violence, further straining the country’s security forces.
“Nigeria saw the highest number of fatalities, with 294 recorded incidents resulting in 913 deaths.
“Boko Haram and ISWAP intensified attacks in Borno State, launching coordinated ambushes against military personnel.
“In Zamfara and Katsina states, banditry escalated significantly as armed groups engaged in mass kidnappings and violent raids on rural communities,” the report added.
It stressed that in January, some of the worst-affected locations include Tsafe and Shinkafi in Zamfara State which saw a rise in communal and insurgent violence.
Others are Batsari in Katsina State which was targeted by insurgent groups and local militias; Iwaro Oka in Ondo State which experienced violent communal disputes, and Umu-Okanne in Imo State which saw militia activity and protests turn deadly.
The report stated that conversely, some areas remained relatively stable, with Abuja, Akure, and Abeokuta reporting minimal or no fatalities.
The report recorded 913 deaths from 294 violent incidents in Nigeria in January alone, noting that Boko Haram and ISWAP intensified attacks in Borno State, where coordinated ambushes targeted military personnel.
In Zamfara and Katsina states, banditry escalated significantly, according to the report, with armed groups carrying out mass kidnappings and raids on villages with minimal resistance from government forces.
The report further noted that on January 4, Nigerian security forces launched an operation in Jibia, Katsina State, targeting militant hideouts.
Air and ground strikes resulted in the deaths of 80 militants, marking a rare success for security forces.
However, the same day, ISWAP fighters ambushed troops in Sabon Gari Gana, Borno State, using drones for surveillance before launching an assault that killed 40 soldiers—a sign of the insurgents’ growing tactical sophistication.
Another tragic event occurred on January 12 in Baga, Borno State, where
suspected ISWAP fighters attacked farmers, killing 40 people, the report stated.
The victims had reportedly signed a protection agreement with one ISWAP faction but were targeted by another, illustrating the complex and exploitative dynamics of local insurgent power struggles.
The violence continued on January 14, when Nigerian troops were ambushed while returning from a mass burial for the Baga victims, leading to 29 additional deaths, including nine soldiers.
Meanwhile, on January 11, military airstrikes in Zamfara State targeted armed militias in Tungar Kara and Maradun. While the operation successfully eliminated several militants, 17 civilian militia members were also killed, raising concerns about the precision and accountability of government air raids.
The report warned that unless regional governments adapt their counterinsurgency approaches and improve coordination, militant groups are likely to expand further, worsening instability across West Africa.
According to the report, without urgent policy interventions and increased military coordination, the security situation in Nigeria and across West Africa is poised to deteriorate further, posing a major threat to regional stability.