DEM: Trump Has A New European Leader Coming To His Doorstep

European leaders may soon be able to take comfort in having one of their own sitting north of the border of the United States.

Mark Carney, a former central banker who spent much of the last decade in Europe, is widely expected to win the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party on Sunday. If so, he will succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister, who announced in January that he would step down once his party selected a new leader amid his poor polling numbers and internal party disputes.

Carney spent the early part of his career at Goldman Sachs, where he worked for 13 years before serving a five-year term as Canada’s central bank governor. But his profile rose to prominence on the continent after he became the Bank of England’s first non-British governor in 2013.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the former head of the European Central Bank, told POLITICO that having a foreigner helm a major central bank was “in no way an obvious decision,” but that Carney’s “remarkable” reputation in central banking helped the appointment go through.

The man who appointed him then, the U.K.’s former conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, said Carney’s experience on the international stage will serve as an asset both to Canada and leaders in Western Europe as they confront the challenges posed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has threatened to annex Canada and hit the country with massive tariffs.

“His primary responsibility will be to the people of Canada, but it’ll definitely help the Western world,” Osborne told POLITICO.

“To have someone around the table who’s been there, been in the room … not intimated by a trip to the White House, not intimated by meeting Donald Trump … that person’s Mark Carney,” Osborne said.

Roland Lescure, who was France’s industry minister until last September and was briefly discussed as a potential French prime minister, has known Carney for more than a decade after having worked in the financial sector in Canada.

Lescure told POLITICO that he was often in touch with Carney while in government, and stressed that the likely new Canadian premier and French President Emmanuel Macron “know each other well,” which “would obviously be a big perk for France-Canada relations.”

“He’s a bit of a Canadian Mario Draghi,” Lescure added, comparing Carney to the former Italian European Central Bank chief, a fellow Goldman Sachs alumnus who remains influential in European circles. Carney has referenced Draghi in past speeches and seems aware of the comparisons with another central banker who went on to become his country’s prime minister.

In his leadership bid back home, the 59-year-old has positioned himself as an outsider — “not a career politician,” he says. But in England, Carney didn’t shy away from acting like a politician to gain acceptance. Those who know Carney from his time across the Atlantic are confident he is well-suited for the rigor of frontline politics, even though he spent most of his career as a central banker rather than an elected official.

“[Carney] tried to connect more broadly to the country and traveled around,” Osborne explained. “He got out on tour, which is what any politician would do but was quite unusual [in his role].”
Can Carney continue?

Carney stepped down in 2020, quickly becoming a global leader in pushing banks and investors to take climate change seriously.

In his leadership bid back home, the 59-year-old has positioned himself as an outsider — “not a career politician,” he says.

Seeking distance from Trudeau’s declining popularity, Carney — who advised the Liberals under Trudeau — has emphasized that his advisory work extended beyond Canada.

He still bears the scars of the Brexit years as well. He faced criticism from pro-Brexit figures when he warned that leaving the EU threatened the U.K.’s financial stability. Carney has pointed to his experience with Brexit as a warning sign against the dangers of right-wing populism. He could now face someone who fits that label in an election against the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre.

Whether Carney’s international credentials will stand the test of time remains to be seen. His net-zero banking initiative is unraveling with political headwinds blowing in the opposition direction. Key departures include Morgan Stanley and Citi.

It’s also unclear how long Carney will remain in office. Opposition parties have vowed to force an election once parliament resumes, and Carney could be tempted to do so himself even sooner. Liberals had braced for disaster in the next race, but Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s threats against Canada have given the incumbent party new momentum.

Polling aggregator 338Canada shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by just six points, against a 25-point deficit before Trudeau’s resignation.